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16 March 2020 – Another record low, Dow down 2997.10 points

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 7023.44 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range is 943.08. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 26.1.

Dow Industrial gapped down and closed at 20188.52 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 3069.16. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.3.

Russell 2000 closed at 1037.416 with a huge bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 174.9401. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 22.2.

Nasdaq 100 gapped down and closed at 7020.3768 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1001.6569. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 32.9.

S&P 500 (SPX) gapped down and closed at 2386.13 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 330.08. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 30.1.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $28.69 per barrel with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 5.65. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 27.5.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1514.5 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 123.9. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strond Downward. RSI – 16.5.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped down and closed at 11.38 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.91. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negat7ve and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 19.7.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 181’08 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 6.1875. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 64.4.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 75.65 with a big doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 5.75. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 24.6.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.998 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.245. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long ycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 52.


EUR/USD closed at 1.1181 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.017. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 55.4.

USD/JPY closed at 104.61 with a big doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 3.028. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 46.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLB, XLP, /ES, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLV, SPY, XLY, XLU, SPX and XLE.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLB, XLP, /ES, XLF, XLK, XLI, XLV, SPY, XLY, XLU, SPX and XLE.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Very Bearish. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downward and showing distribution. Skew – 114.66. Vix – 82.69 and Vix Futures – 67.25.   

The Week Ahead 
Dow Industrial was down 2997.10 points which has to be the largest down day for the index. It closed at 31.7% below the all-time high. Skew breached below 117 which just about guaranteed a bounce. The Put/Call ratio was at 1.342 which is high but not extremely high. The prognosis is for the indices to rebound but the magnitude might not be huge.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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