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1 July 2020 – NFP employment up, Indices up

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTUpTrend. /YMUpTrend and in preliminary Squeeze. /RTYUpTrend and in a Squeeze. /NQUpTrend and in a Squeeze. /ESUpTrend and in a Squeeze.

The indices are now in their volatility compression and the likelihood of it Squeezing upward is high.

/CLUpTrend and in a Squeeze. /GCUpTrend. /ZB – UpTrend. HYG – DownTrend. DBCUpTrend and in a Squeeze.

Junk bond (HYG) is in a DownTrend and commodities (DBC) is in an UpTrend. Mixed signals.

$DXY – Ranging. EUR/USD – UpTrend and in a Squeeze. USD/JPYUpTrend.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bullish. Put/Call ratio – 0.625. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers to gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping upward and showing accumulation. Vix –28.62. Vix Futures – 29.90. Skew – 142.44.

The indices are now in a volatility compression. Which way will it Squeeze their way? Skew is way above 142 which signal a potential for a fat tail event. We are near to the 4th July which is when the market is typically rather bullish. It is likely that early next week, the market will fall.

Relative Strength – Sectors.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLK, XLY, SPX, /ES, SPY, XLV, XLB, XLP, XLI, XLU, XLF and XLE.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLK, XLY, XLV, XLB, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLP, XLI, XLU, XLF and XLE.  


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