Bursa KLCI

13 June 2018 – Interest rate hike, indices dropped

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11003.15 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 123.73. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction – Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy. It is a daily and weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 25201.20 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 170.65. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1676.54 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.91. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7205.2557 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 68.15. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2775.63 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 16.82. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction – Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $66.62 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.37. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Neutral/Buy.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1302.9 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.7. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Buy/Buy.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 18.67 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.14. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.90 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.16. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Neutral/Buy.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 142’27 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 EMA. Daily trading range was 1.0625. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is flat. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Neutral/Sell.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.92 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.22. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currencies
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 93.546 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.504. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Sell/Sell. It is in a daily Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1790 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0075. TSI is in a negative cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Buy/Buy.

USD/JPY closed at 110.32 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.574. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0154 with a small doji candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0057. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLY, XLV, XLB, XLP, XLK, XLF and XLE.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLY, XLK and XLB respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth has flattened. Accumulation/ Distribution has flattened. Skew is at 141.74. Vix is at 12.94 and Vix futures is at 13.25.

The Week Ahead
Fed has increased its interest rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note is nearly at 3%. Market internals continue to remain strong. Market breadth has flattened. Volume accumulation/distribution has flattened as well. Skew is normal but near the extreme level. Vix and Vix futures has increased to below 13. The prognosis is for the indices to be under selling pressure.

Futures Summary(daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Buy. Short term Buy/Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
NQ – Intermediate Buy. Short term Buy/Buy.
YM – Intermediate Buy. Short term Buy/Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
GC – Intermediate Sell. Short term Buy/Buy. Daily and Weekly Squeeze.
CL – Intermediate Sell. Short term Neutral/Buy.

 

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