Bursa KLCI

31 July 2018 – Market remains confused!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11077.10 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 181.02. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25415.19 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 145.77. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1670.8048 with a bullish marubozu candle on its 50 SMA and below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 22.08. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Bearish. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7231.9832 with a doji candle above its 50 SMA and below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 93.55. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2816.29 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 16.4. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $68.43 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.24. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1232.9 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 15.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.53 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.23. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.25 with a bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.11. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 143’01 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.9375. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 86.12 with a small spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.1. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.551 with a bullish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.404. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in the Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1690 with a low closing spinning top doji candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0061. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 111.83 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.22. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0137 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.004. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLE and XLB .

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLP, XLI, XLY and XLU respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 144.49. Vix is at 12.83 and Vix futures is at 14.36.

The Week Ahead
The indices are giving out mixed signal. Dow Transportation has turned bullish but Russell 2000 has turned bearish. Nasdaq 100 has also turned bearish while Dow30 and S&P500 continues to be bullish. Skew is high which means the S&P 500 will come under continuing selling pressure. Vix is below 13 and Vix futures is below 15. This is quite normal and it means that a near term volatility can be expected. The prognosis is for a mixed market until some event moves the market.

ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Rising. Current – Negative/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

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