Bursa KLCI

1 August 2018 – Trade War Bites!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10983.03 with a bearish candle above its 8EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 134.69. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25333.82 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 145.77. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1669.263 with a doji candle on its 50 SMA and below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 15.68. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Bearish. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7272.887 with a doji candle above its 50 SMA and below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 60.152. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2813.36 with a spinning top doji candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.98. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $67.85 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.38. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1232.9 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 15.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.44 with a spinning top candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.23. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped down and closed at 17.00 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.17. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 143’04 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.4375. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 85.83 with a small spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.215. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.657 with a small candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.219. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in the Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1659 with a bearish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0042. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 111.71 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.76. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0137 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0033. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is positive and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLV and XLF .

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLK, XLY, XLP and XLU respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 142.77. Vix is at 13.15 and Vix futures is at 14.36.

The Week Ahead
Market internal continues to give out mixed signals. It is showing market accumulation yet at the same time, it is showing the number of decliners is more than the gainers. Vix and Vix futures are still relatively low. Skew is still above 142 which is the threshold showing that the market participants are short the market and expect it to sell off. The prognosis is for the mixed market to continue.

ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Rising. Current – Negative/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

To YOUR wealth!

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