Bursa KLCI

2 August 2018 – Market Optimism rules!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11055.21 with a bullish candle above its 8EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 150.22. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25326.16 with a hammer candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 240.41. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1682.099 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.97. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Bearish. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7372.15 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 159.21. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2827.22 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 33.57. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $68.99 per barrel with a bullish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.44. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1215.9 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 14.7. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.38 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.17. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.10 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.24. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 142’13 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.7187. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.88 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.17. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.17 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.06. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Bullish. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1584 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0085. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 111.64 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.418. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Bullish. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0083 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0041. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLV, XLF, XLK, XLP and XLU .

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLP, XLK, XLY, XLU and XLI respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 143.83. Vix is at 12.19 and Vix futures is at 13.93.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are giving conflicting signals which means volatility. There is volume accumulation but at the same time, the number of losers is more than the gainers on a daily basis. Less and less companies are gaining even as the indices are holding or going up. Vix and Vix futures are not showing fear. SKEW continues to be above 142 which means that there are many market participants holding on to a bearish view of the market. The prognosis continues for more volatility.

ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Rising. Current – Negative/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

To YOUR wealth!

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