Bursa KLCI

14 August 2018 – Conflicting signals in the indices!!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11114.35 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 140.44. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25299.92 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 137.64. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1692.58 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.77. Intermediate Cycle is positive and flat. Short Cycle is positive and flat. Market direction: Buy. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7447.17 with a hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 65.43. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

S&P 500 closed at 2839.96 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 16.53. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $66.63 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.79. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1201.1 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 6.9. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.22 with a small bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.09. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.98 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.175. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’06 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.5625. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.98 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.15. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.656 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.63. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Bullish. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1343 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0099. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 110.65 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.827. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.01 with a bullish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0033. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Buy. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Sell.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLV, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLI and XLF.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK, XLF and XLI respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is Bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping downwards showing nett distribution. Skew is at 152.41. Vix is at 13.31 and Vix futures is at 14.02.

The Week Ahead
The indices rose even as the market internals are showing weaknesses. Vix has increased to above 13 even as the indices recovered. Vix Futures is above 14 which is only a slight increase. SKEW is very high at 152.41! Market sentiment is bullish again. The prognosis is for a pullback in the indices.

To YOUR wealth!

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