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Z5 Fri, 29 December 2023

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15 August 2018 – Market pulls back, SKEW remains high

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11115.02 with a hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 150.22. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25162.41 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 269.6. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1670.666 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 28.07. Intermediate Cycle is positive and flat. Short Cycle is positive and flat. Market direction: Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7354.6613 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 100.96. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2818.37 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 25.46. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $64.9 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.39. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It has just exited its Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1181.8 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 21.8. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.07 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.18. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped down and closed at 16.61 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.24. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’18 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.125. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.83 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.17. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.712 with a small inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.3329. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Bullish. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1344 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0053. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 110.73 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.994. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0091 with a doji candle intertwined with its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.006. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Buy. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLK, XLP, XLY, XLF, XLI and XLB.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLP, XLY, XLK, XLI and XLF respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is slightly Bearish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping downwards showing nett distribution. Skew is at 148.40. Vix is at 14.64 and Vix futures is at 14.40.

The Week Ahead
Market internals continue to show weakness. Vix is now 14.64 and Vix futures is at 14.40 which is less. The market is expecting immediate near term volatility. Skew is still rather elevated at 148.40. The prognosis is for further pullback in the indices.

To YOUR wealth!

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