Bursa KLCI

16 August 2018 – Market shrugs off Turkey, UpTrend continues

Indices
Dow Transportation gapped up and closed at 11190.43 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 111.14. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25558.73 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 312.37. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1685.7522 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.73. Intermediate Cycle is positive and flat. Short Cycle is positive and flat. Market direction: Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7374.2948 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 60.95. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2840.69 with an inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.05. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $65.45 per barrel with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.09. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1181 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 21.9. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.29 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.2539. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped down and closed at 16.74 with a small bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.09. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’19 with a high closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.5625. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.94 with a spinning top doji candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.13. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.599 with a high closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.4489. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Bullish. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1376 with a high closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0073. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 110.89 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.66. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0054 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.006. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLP, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLY and XLB.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLF and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is slightly Bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 148.48. Vix is at 13.21 and Vix futures is at 13.70.

The Week Ahead
Skew continues to be rather elevated for the past couple of weeks. Vix and Vix futures are above 13 and show that market participants are hedging. Market internals are showing mixed signals. The prognosis is for a cautious market even as the indices continue upwards.

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