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Z5 Fri, 19 July 2024

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Z5 Mon, 1 July 2024

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Z5 Fri 28 June 2024

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Z5 Thur, 27 June 2024

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17 September 2018 – Trade War Escalates

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11468.73 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 161.66. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26062.12 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 154.12. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1703.5481 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.57. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7434.73 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 117.71. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2888.80 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.82. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $68.77 per barrel with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.48. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1206.1 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 12.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 16.90 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.18 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.159. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 141’25 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.688. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 86.27 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.1. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.504 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.54. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1682 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.008. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

USD/JPY closed at 111.83 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.361. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a daily and Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0471 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.007. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLE, XLY, XLB, XLV, XLP and XLU.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI, XLU, XLP and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is Bullish. Market breadth is sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upward showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 150.95. Vix has gone up to 13.68 and Vix futures is at 13.70. It is still not signalling fear. Skew is extremely elevated and is another indication of stretched the market is. The prognosis is for more market volatility.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are giving mixed message. With the ramping up of the Trade War, we can expect more market volatility. Vix is now above 13 and .

To YOUR wealth!

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