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18 September 2018 – Trade War hots up and volatility increases!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11514.94 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 149.92. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26246.96 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 255.22. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1710.971 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 11.3705. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7494.3994 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 96.47. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

S&P 500 closed at 2904.31 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 22.37. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $69.45 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.88. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1202.9 with a bearish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 7.9. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 16.89 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.09. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.34 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.24. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 140’16 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.5. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.26 with a bearish spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.12. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.61 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.414. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1663 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0072. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.34 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.726. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a daily and Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0451 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.006. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLE, XLY, XLV, XLB, XLK, XLU and XLP.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI, XLU, XLK and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is Bullish. Market breadth is sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upward showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 151.37. Vix is at 12.79 and Vix futures is at 14.70.

The Week Ahead
Vix has gone up to 12.79 and Vix futures is at 14.66. Vix futures is signalling near term fear. Skew is extremely elevated and is another indication of how stretched the market is. Market internals are giving mixed signals. The prognosis is for more market volatility..

To YOUR wealth!

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