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29 October 2018 – A Wild Day!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 9896.11 with a bearish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 408.36. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 24442.92 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 918.35. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1477.306 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 51.6263. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6713.9018 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 394.44. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2641.25 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 103.31. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $66.69 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.66. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1231.2 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 11.5. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.51 with a bearish candle belwo its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.28. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.28 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 139’09 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.094. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.15 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.4. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.686 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.385. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1391 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0055. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.24 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 50 SMA and below its 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 0.787. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0024 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0053. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLU, XLF, XLK, XLE and XLY.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLK, XLF and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is slightly bearish. Market Breadth continues to slope downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Accumulation/Distribution is sloping downwards which means the market is in distribution. Vix is at 25.05. Vix futures is at 21.95. Skew is at 120.83.

The Week Ahead
Market Breadth is showing more losers than gainers. The market is in distribution mode. Vix has gone even higher to be above 25. Vix futures is above 21. Vix is in backwardation which means that the Vix futures reading is higher than the Vix. The market has the expectation of the volatility coming down in the near term. Skew is normal. The prognosis is for the volatility to continue.

To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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