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30 October 2018 – An Up day in a Down Trend

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10175.57 with a bullish marubozu candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 293.75. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 24874.64 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 490.99. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1506.6372 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 32.363. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6810.1211 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 163.738. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2682.63 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 50.09. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $66.35 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.93. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1224.6 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 200 SMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 11.01. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.45 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.14. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.19 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’22 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.75. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral. It is in a Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.35 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.365. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.006 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.4. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1343 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0047. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 113.10 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.81. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 0.999 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0045. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLU, XLE, XLB, XLF, XLI and XLK.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLU, XLE, XLB, XLF, XLI and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is slightly bullish. Market Breadth continues to slope downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Accumulation/Distribution is sloping downwards which means the market is in distribution mode. Vix is at 23.35. Vix futures is at 20.75. Skew is at 118.11.

The Week Ahead
Market just had an up day in a down trend. there are still no sign of a reversal. All the indices are still heading downwards. Skew is normal. Vix is elevated and Vix futures is still elevated. Market internals are showing weakening in the market with distribution and also the losers are more substantial than the weakness. The prognosis is for more volatility.

To YOUR wealth!
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